XG Feature – Expected Goals Prediction
Plymouth
Burnley
Leeds
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke City
Celtic
BSC Young Boys
Feyenoord
Bayern Munich
AC Milan
Girona
Paris Saint Germain
Manchester City
Sparta Praha
Inter
Arsenal
Dinamo Zagreb
Real Madrid
Red Bull SalzburgFootball’s most exciting moments are when strikers are able to beat the goalie and put the ball in the back of the net. This part of a match is what decides the results.
Statistics and data have become a big part of how fans and sportsbooks alike analyze the game, and in recent years, expected goals or XG have entered the mainstream.
What is XG in Football?
Expected Goals, or XG, is a statistical metric that visualises (measures) the quality of a scoring chance, i.e., how likely a goal is to be made based on similar shorts in the past.
But hold that thought! Unlike simple shot counts, which treat all shots equally, xG takes a more nuanced approach, i.e., it accounts for factors that may influence the likelihood of a goal being scored. These include distance and angle to the goal box, shot type, body part used, defensive pressure, game state, assist type, goalkeeper position, etc.
Typically, each shot is assigned a value between 0 and 1, representing the probability of a chance resulting in a goal. If a shot is rated an XG of 0.8, it suggests an 80% probability of it being a goal, while an XG of 0.2 represents a 20% chance.
By compiling the XG values, we can effectively generate predictions for soccer matches, i.e., expected goals predictions for each team. Say, a team or player is rated at an XG of 2.5, but only nets 1 goal, it suggests that they’re underperforming, i.e., per their expected output.
Conversely, netting 3 goals with an XG of 1.5, shows they’re holding their own or perhaps benefiting from a stroke of luck.
Do Bookmakers Offer the XG Feature?
Using the XG feature is becoming something of a norm these days even though bookmakers have not fully adopted the stat.
Even so, bookmakers in Europe and South America are starting to take up the stat offering it to their members for analysis. The stat is mostly being inculcated into live games where players are able to take advantage of statistics like the amount and quality of shots taken in a game by both teams. For instance, Betano, offers the XG feature.
How to Read the XG Stats Correctly
Now that you know what the Expected Goals (XG) feature is, understanding how to interpret the data is just as key. Here are some tips:
- Use XG to compare to the actual goals scored: Teams that consistently outperform their XG in soccer indicate that they are creating a higher quality of chances than predicted. The same goes for teams that post results lower than their XG; it shows their current form in comparison to what is expected.
- Check the history of XG trends over time: Teams often have patterns for their offensive and defensive output. Is either of these declining or improving? This information will shed light on what to expect for the next game.
- Use XG as well as other factors: XG alone does not tell the whole story. Combine your XG findings with data, such as statistics on offensive players, weather news, team updates. head-to-head records, and more, while making your picks.
How to Use the XG Expected Goals Prediction in Your Bets?
XG can serve different purposes when making your picks. While you may not apply the metric directly, there are ways in which it gets you to the right predictions for different types of bets.
This is one of the markets that are determined by the number of goals scored in a match. With the expected goals prediction on hand, you can decide whether to place your bet as over or under the number of goals set.
Keep up with the game’s performance (as it carries on) by using XG predictions to determine whether a goal is likely to be scored and which team will score it.
The full-time result is determined by the number of goals scored. In this case, the expected goals let you know what team to root for, with it being the most likely to win.
FAQ
How does the expected goals calculator work?
Calculators that give XG values use algorithms and historical data to determine the probability of a shot going in.
What is the XG philosophy?
The XG philosophy is used to give more objective takes on attacking performances with more accuracy as well. It takes this analysis beyond the simple shot count and also includes the shot quality.
Are the XG stats helpful for soccer bettors?
Yes, XG comes in handy for soccer bettors, especially in markets like Total Goals Scored, Goal/No Goal (GG/NG), and Over/Under. So to say, betting markets that have to do with goal tallies. This metric can also be used to inform your bet for the final outcome of a match.
