Total Goals Market in Soccer Betting
Atlético Paso
Eldense
Tottenham
Manchester City
Aberdeen
Rangers
Winterswijk
Heracles
Rijnsburgse Boys
Roda
Quick Boys
Almere City FC
MVV
Den Bosch
Eemdijk
OJC RosmalenWhat Does Total Goals Market Mean?
If you’re not new to soccer betting, then you’ve probably come across the Total Goal market (also known as Over/Under) already — but don’t get me wrong, as this option is not limited to seasoned bettors, quite the contrary!
Its simplicity (simple concept) in accurate soccer prediction is perhaps one of the selling points to newbie bettors as well. So what exactly is it? Well, with this market, you’re essentially predicting whether the total goals scored by a team will be over or under a set number by the bookmaker.
Ideally, this number is in decimal format, say 2.5 or 3.5, to prevent the likelihood of a tie.
Best Bookmakers for Total Goals Soccer Bets
Now that you’re acquainted with the Totals market, where are you likely to find the best odds in Mzansi (South Africa)? Well, according to our tests, these three, by and large, give the best odds for the Over/Under 1.5 Market:
- Complex betting experience
- Many additional betting options
- Cool betting features
- Various promotions for existing customers
- Attractive horse racing section
- Wide range of Vegas games
- Experienced bookmaker
- Reputable and licensed brand
- Variety of bonuses
Total Goals Betting Examples
As hinted, Total Goals betting, otherwise known as the Over Under market, will see you wager on the number of goals to be scored in a football match. That is to say, you’ll not be betting on which team will win or lose but rather on the combined score.
So, when will your bet win or lose? Simply put, your bet wins if the goals scored by both teams (combined) stay over or under the said/set margin. For example:
- Over 2.5 goals: Here, your prediction/bet wins if the teams (in a match) score a cumulative total of 3 or more goals, e.g., 2-1, 3-0, or 4-2, etc. However, you lose if the combined score is 2 or fewer goals (e.g., 1-0, 0-0, or 1-1).
- Under 2.5 goals: Your bet wins if 2 or fewer goals are scored in the match. So to say, the final score can be 0-0, 1-1, or 2-0, etc. That said, you’ll lose the bet if the teams score 3 or more goals, for instance, a scoreline of 2-1, 3-0, or 2-2.
- Over 1.5 goals: In like fashion, your bet wins if 2 or more goals are scored in the match. Nonetheless, you lose if the total score is 1 or 0 goal.
- Under 3.5 goals: Lastly, if 3 or fewer goals are scored in the match your bet is a winner. But should the teams net 4 or more goals (cumulative), your bet loses.
And the pattern goes on and on, regardless of the goals estimate, e.g., o/u 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, etc.
Do Total Goals Bets Mean Good Odds?
I’ll play the devil’s advocate and say Total Goals bets don’t inherently/always mean good odds. And we can derive this from the fact that the “value” you get (offered) on these markets fluctuates depending on factors such as the pedigree of the match/season, one-sided matches, and more.
So, when are the odds typically high?
To paint the paint the picture, you’d get high Total Goals bets odds in:
- Unpredictable matches: By this I mean games where both teams have potentially strong attacks or a history of high-scoring matches — here, you’re likely to get/find higher odds on over 2.5 goals. The basis is that oddsmakers/bookies are less certain of the outcome and, thus, the potential returns can be greater.
- Low-scoring leagues: To switch it up, we have leagues typically known for tactical or defensive playing styles. Here, “under” bets may carry better value, especially if two strong defensive teams are squaring off. After all, your bet will still be a winner, even in the face of a potential draw.
- Start of the season: Lastly, early in the season is when we see teams settle/get into their rhythm, and thus, it can be a trickier time to predict total goals, which can lead to favourable odds.
And when are the odds low?
Ideally, you’d expect low odds, especially on one-sided matches, in the event a key player is injured or in reserve, and more, as I have shown below:
- One-sided matches: Should a strong favourite play a weak opponent (the underdogs), we’re likely to see low odds on “over” bets, as the bookie anticipates that a high-scoring game is likely to ensue.
- Late in the season: As teams battle out for position or to stave off relegation, matches can become more heated and in a way, predictable (stand-offs), and this is reflected in lower odds, especially in “under” bets/markets.
- Lastly, external factors: As I hinted out earlier, we may see a drastic reduction of odds if key attacking players are missing a match (injured or on reserve) or when the weather conditions are poor, among other instances.
While these are great indicators, I have to say that finding great odds at the end of the day relies on research and, ultimately, understanding the context of the match. A good place to start is analysing team/player form, H2H records, and league trends to potentially identify value bets where the bookie’s assessment might be slightly off.
Under Over Goals Tips
As I’ve touched on above, Total Goals betting is not just about luck; rather, it’s a merger between statistical analysis and an understanding of the match/game dynamics. Here are some tips to help with just that:
Tip 1: Analyse team tactics, incl. attacking and defensive strengths
And it’s not just team form, but that of players as well. I’d say start by looking into what the contributing factor to a team’s performance is. After all, some teams have a solid defensive play, while others take a more aggressive approach.
Thus, understanding what tactics the teams are more attuned to can help predict Total Goals. That is, whether a game/match will be high or low-scoring. Additionally, I’d recommend paying close attention to the teams’ recent performance, including their scoring averages and H2H matchups — to get a clearer picture of what to expect.
Tip 2: Consider the importance of the match: what does it mean for the teams?
If it wasn’t clear before, I’ll highlight it again: the context of the match/game matters! For example, take a high-stakes match; this can be in the cup finals or a relegation decider. In such a matchup we might see the teams consolidate their play and prioritise avoiding mistakes.
In turn, this will impact the final score, as the match will likely be a low-scoring game. On the other hand, a mid-table clash or a friendly H2H with little at stake could see teams strive for more goals vis-à-vis defensive play.
Tip 3: Take note of external factors (and their impact on a match)
Let’s admit it: there’s never a “perfect match,” as little nuances, such as weather conditions, refereeing styles, venue (home/away play, i.e., crowd atmosphere), and player injuries can significantly influence the outcome of a match.
For example, heavy rain can potentially lead to fewer goals in a match. What’s more, a lenient referee might permit physical play to some extent, which may lead to fewer goals. By inculcating these factors into your research, you can potentially increase your chance of placing informed Total Goals bets.
