Football Betting Odds Explained + Calculator
Football betting odds showcase the probability of a certain outcome occurring. You can use betting odds to determine the potential profit of a winning bet. Learn how to use a betting odds calculator to read, compare, and understand different betting odds formats. Get to know more about betting odds through our betting guide below.
Betting Odds Calculator
All formats at a glance
A betting odds calculator is designed to help you unlock the winning potential of every bet. This tool makes it easy to conveniently compare odds across multiple sportsbooks, calculate potential payouts, and implement your betting strategies.
You can use the football betting odds calculator to calculate how much you can win from a bet. It identifies the total odds from match selections and multiplies the stake by the odds. You know the potential winnings from a bet before placing it, regardless of the sports market or competition on which the bet is placed. You can also switch between different odds formats.
How Do Betting Odds Work?
Bookmakers use odds as a means of showing the probability of a certain outcome happening, not a certainty. The lower the odds, the more chances of the event occurring.
You can use betting odds to work out the potential profit of any winning bet. The higher the odds, the bigger the potential payout after a win. But also! The higher the risk. Always keep that in mind.
For example, you back Team A to win at odds of 3.00 with a Ksh 1,000 stake. Your potential return is the odds multiplied by your stake (3 x 1,000) to make it Ksh 3,000. Your net profit after subtracting your initial stake is Ksh 2,000.
In another case, you back Team B, who are heavy favorites with odds at 1.30 with a Ksh 1,000 stake. Your initial stake returns a net profit of Ksh 300. The lower odds reflect a higher probability of that outcome happening, but the reward is significantly lower.
How to Read Betting Odds in Football
Football betting odds are commonly presented in the 1X2 format that covers a home win, draw, or away win. Each option is priced differently, and reading them can reveal what the bookmaker expects and what you’d win from backing an outcome.
For example, Gor Mahia are playing FC Leopards, and the odds format looks like this:
- Gor Mahia (1): 1.30
- Draw (X): 2.80
- AFC Leopards (2): 4.20
The shortest odds belong to Gor Mahia at 1.30 since they are heavy favorites according to the bookmaker. AFC Leopards are priced at 4.20 and are backed as the underdogs.
This means the bookmaker views an away win as less likely. The draw between the two sides stands at 2.80. Backing the shortest odds doesn’t necessarily mean a 100% guaranteed win.
Suppose you’re considering a bet on Gor Mahia to win the match at 1.30 odds. The pricing means that for every Ksh 100 spent, you’ll make a Ksh 30 profit if your bet wins.
Types of Sports Betting Odds
Different bookmakers have different sports betting odds indicating the same probability and value. Here are different sports betting odds and how to calculate odds on different formats:
Decimal
Decimal odds are the most popular format for displaying odds to show the probability of an event. You’ll find it represented in all bookmakers in Kenya. It makes it easier for punters to compare odds without complicated mathematical formulas. Here are some decimal bets and how they work out:
- 5.00 – Bookie pays Ksh 500 for every Ksh 100 staked
- 2.20 – Bookie pays Ksh 220 for every Ksh 100 staked
- 3.00 – Bookie pays Ksh 3,000 for every Ksh 1,000 staked
Fractional
Fractional odds use a fractional format to display the probability of an event happening. It is a straightforward process of determining how much you will win from a bet. Here are some examples of fractional bets and how they would work:
- 3/1 – Bookie pays Ksh 300 for every Ksh 100 staked
- 5/2 – Bookie pays Ksh 500 for every Ksh 200 staked
- 15/2 – Bookie pays Ksh 1500 for every Ksh 200 staked
American
American odds are also known as moneyline odds. These are odds formats primarily used in the U.S. They are displayed with either a minus (-) or a positive (+), indicating the favorite or underdog, respectively. Here are examples of American odds and their potential payout:
- +150 – Bet Ksh 100, win Ksh 150, payout Ksh 250
- +150 – Bet Ksh 10, win Ksh 15, payout Ksh 25
- -225 – Bet Ksh 100, win Ksh 44.44, payout Ksh 144,44
Betting Odds & Implied Probability
Implied probabilities are market estimates of how likely an outcome is, expressed as a percentage. They show what the odds suggest about the probability of a result occurring. You can reach it by dividing 1 by the decimal odds and multiplying by 100.
- Decimal odds of 2.50 = 40% implied probability
- American odds of -200 = 66.7% implied probability
In the first example, it means the bookmaker believes that outcome has a 4 in 1 chance of happening.
After knowing the implied probability percentage, you can compare it to your own estimate of the true chance of the outcome. In case your estimate is higher than the implied odds, there may be value in the bet.
How Are Football Betting Odds Calculated by Bookmakers
Betting odds aren’t guesswork or random. Each odd’s pricing presents a combination of statistical modeling, human expertise, and real-time information.
The statistical modeling accounts for team form over recent matches, head-to-head records, home and away performance, goals scored and conceded, expected lineups, injury reports, and motivation.
The final prices featured on a bookmaker represent a margin. This means the true probability is always slightly understated in the price you see. Different operators run different models and weigh certain factors differently. The variation is exactly why comparing odds before placing a bet is worth the extra minutes.
Why Do Betting Odds Change?
Betting odds change as a response to movements in the market. Major market events such as injuries, confirmed lineups, weather, team news, professional market movement, or corrections to the bookmaker’s initial assessment.
These betting odds can rise or fall depending on the market situation. For example, an injury to a main striker can lead to falling odds, especially for the heavy favorites. Also, an injury to a starting goalkeeper can raise odds to compensate for goals likely to be conceded. However, a clear market movement does not guarantee the result.
Live betting features constant odds movements as events unfold in real life. Injuries, red cards, penalties, or VAR reviews cause instant real-time odd changes by the bookmaker based on the current activity of both teams.
Practical Tips on Betting Odds
Reading betting odds is a practical way of making the best out of your bets. Apart from your research, adding information related to betting odds can improve your decision-making. Here’s our guide on how to bet on football while making the most out of bets:
Compare odds between operators
Odds on different bookmakers vary depending on the match and betting market on offer. One operator might offer 2.40 on a home win while another has it at 2.10.
The difference in potential returns might look small on a single bet, but across multiple bets once a month, it can make a huge difference. Always compare the odds pricing on two or three operators to improve your returns.
Track your betting performance
A healthy habit to back your bankroll management is tracking your betting performance. Which week did you go on a losing streak? What days were you lucky? Did you make a return on investment from your monthly stakes?
Keep a simple record with details about date, match, market, odds, stake, and result. Monthly reviews can reveal patterns you haven’t noticed otherwise.
Do not chase the highest return
A beginner mistake is fantasizing about your potential returns from large odds. For example, a 12.00 selection might look inviting on a modest Ksh 100 stake.
The only downside is that chasing odds without backing with research can lead to losses. The return might be high, but the probability is low. Short odds of 2.00 backed by research are worth more value than one with 10.00+ odds.
Check the bookie’s T&Cs
Reading the fine print with odds terms and conditions can reveal much more information about potential returns. Some bookmakers have maximum payout limits, market-specific rules, accumulator restrictions, and settlement policies. This affects how much you actually receive when your bet wins.
For example, there are tax betting sites that charge withholding and excise duty tax on deposits and withdrawals. Other tax free betting sites don’t charge these taxes.
FAQ
What do betting odds mean?
Betting odds refer to odds on a particular outcome determined by the bookmaker. It represents how likely a bookmaker thinks an outcome is.
How to caclucate my returns from betting?
Multiply your stake by the decimal odds to get your total return. Afterwards, subtract your original stake to find your net profit.
Are higher odds usually better?
Not automatically. High odds predictions have a big potential return but come with a lower probability of winning. You can find value bets with lower odds, but they are not guaranteed to win.
Why do different bookies offer different odds?
Different bookies have different odds since they use different statistical modeling formulas to determine probability. These bookies weigh factors differently and manage their risk differently.
