The Mathematics of Sports Betting


Introduction to Sports Mathematics

Sports Maths

If you’re unfamiliar with sports betting, then you may think it’s just about betting money on who you think will win a sporting event. While this is a small part of it, there’s a whole lot more to the fun. To begin with, studying statistics and using them when wagering is vital. So is tracking team or player progress and comparing odds are all part of placing a sports wager.

Keep reading as we consider how mathematics can influence your sports betting methods. We also look at some mathematical strategies that you could implement in your betting.

Mathematical Influence

Before we continue, we should note that applying mathematics to your betting will in no way guarantee a win. There’s no way to guarantee the outcome of a sporting event. The aim is only to give you an advantage in sports betting.

Whether you’re looking at statistics, comparing odds or determining the possible payout of a wager, it all involves mathematics. Understanding these aspects and knowing how to incorporate them into your betting activity could increase your winning potential.

Reasons for Applying Mathematics

  • No matter which strategy you prefer to implement, blindly placing bets without a plan will only result in a loss of funds.
  • A betting strategy may not guarantee a successful wager, but it will provide a significant advantage in planning.
  • Having a clear plan can help you to stay on track with your sports betting limits.

Mathematical Strategies for Sports Betting

Sports betting strategies based on mathematics are often more effective than others. The use of mathematics in these systems involves a lot of calculations and considerations before proceeding. These betting strategies make use of formulas to calculate statistics and probabilities to determine stake values and winning potential of specific events. Let’s look at a few of these sports betting strategies based on mathematics and how they work.

Betting strategies using maths

Martingale System

Initially, a roulette betting system, Martingale has fast become one of the most popular strategies in sports betting. When using the Martingale system, you’d put the stake of each winning bet back into the next if you lose your bet, the stake doubles. This strategy only works with odds close- or equal to 2.0.

The idea is that each wager covers the cost of the lost bet. While the profit margin on this betting system is small, it’s an excellent strategy for those just learning about sports betting. It may take time to see your profits grow; always ensure that you run a thorough event analysis first.

Labouchere System

This system is similar to the Martingale strategy in the sense that it contains parts. The Labouchere system breaks up the potential payoff into ten sections. Implementing this mathematical strategy when betting on professional bookmaker sites could produce impressive profits in the long run. The calculations work in reverse for this system. If you have the desired profit in mind, then you should divide it by ten to determine the required profit of each wager. This calculation will help you to determine what your stake should be for all ten parts.

Maria Staking Plan

The Maria system got its name from a player with the same user name who managed to grow her bankroll exponentially in under a year.

Three basic scenarios determine the size of your wager:

  1. If the odds are less than 3.5, your stake should not exceed 1% of your bankroll.
  2. For an odd range between 3.6 and 7.4, do not exceed 0.6% of your bankroll in your stake.
  3. Odds between 7.5 and 11 have a stake that doesn’t exceed 0.4% of your bankroll.

You should take a pass on placing wagers on sporting events with odds higher than 11. It is a good idea to recalculate your bankroll at the end of every day of sports betting. While the stake percentages stay the same, the values fluctuate according to your wager outcomes.

60% Profit Betting Strategy

This mathematics strategy is popular for bettors who only aim to boost their bankroll. However, you should know it’s not a “get rich quick” system. Using this strategy requires time and patience before you start to see the desired profits.

Before you implement this strategy of mathematics, you should ensure that the odds on your specific selection fall between 1.70 and 1.80. Like the Martingale system, this strategy stretches over multiple wagers. As a result, players have the chance to recoup their losses and can still make a small profit.

Your first stake is 1% of your bankroll and increases with each loss. With the loss of each of the five stages, the stake percentage rises to 1%, 3.5%, 9.5%, 24.5%, and 61.5%, respectively. It will take some time since this system works in stages, each with five levels, but there’s potential for an exponential payoff here.

Expert Sports Betting Tips

Do your homework – Staying current on all news regarding your preferred sport or team is just as important as the mathematics behind it. Studying the team statistics, training and injury details and travel plans could all provide valuable information for placing bets.

Compare the odds – Just because the odds look impressive, don’t mean it’s a good deal. Even sportsbooks who claim to have competitive odds could be beaten. Take some time to shop around and compare odds before settling and placing your wager.

Trial and error – Betting strategies don’t have a “one size fits all” approach. Study the different betting strategies and familiarise yourself with them before you start betting. Start by implementing one strategy; if it doesn’t work out for you, then move on to the next one. You may even find that the system that works best for you is a combination of a few strategies.

Javia Alex
Javia Alex is an expert-level Copywriter/Editor with a wealth of experience in the iGaming scene. A self-described player advocate, Javia’s player-first mindset, “tell it like it is”, has earned her an oft-cited voice across gambling circles. She frequently works late nights and long hours, fact-checking reviews and pages for accuracy.